Technology Forecasting

Today summed up an interesting ten weeks of learning about technology and change. It was an appropriate ending to this journey, as the topic was about forecasting the future. In essence, that was what the course was about; to channel our mindsets to the future, training us to be always forward looking. The purpose of us looking through how we have progressed through the various topics of technology was precisely so we could think of the exciting opportunities ahead. We have transformed from merely wanting to spectate to be  ourselves the change leaders of tomorrow, or rather today.

Prof enlightened us on a concept that was particularly interesting. It was the 'back from the future' framework of planning. It speaks of how we usually think of the limitations and resources we have and work our way around these challenges to achieve what we can best make out of it. The 'back from the future' mindset argues that we should first start by envisioning the end product- what we would like to see, whatever crazy places our imagination can take us, and then work backwards from that, striving to change whatever policies in the present that would prevent us from reaching that goal. Instead of thinking of change after its boundaries, we think of change first, then we manipulate the boundaries. Basically, we gotta think the way a child thinks, or the way we used to think, before we got a better understanding of reality and constraints. A kid would dream of flying around in space making the moon and the stars his playground, and to them, its possible. We as the change leaders of today, should never lose that child-like enthusiasm. All the 'grown-up' knowledge that we have, should not be used to limit us or tie us down, but it should be used to enhance our 'unrealistic' goals with the proper frameworks and helping work around the boundaries and issues that would arise. Dream like a child, think and put into action these dreams like an adult.

However, this concept contradicts another mindset brought up in class. This mindset was that limitations is one of the primary guiding tools to progress. An illustration was brought up about a teacher giving the students a piece of paper to write anything they wanted. The students would not know what to write down without the teacher providing them with some guidelines and rules. Put into this context, the previous concept illustrated would be the students drawing whatever they wanted, folding up the paper, tearing up the paper, and whatever they wished to do with it. The teacher would then give them the guidelines and rules. The key would be how the students were to convince the teacher to change the rules or to work their way around the rules so that they could get a pass grade for their assignment. Unfortunately, many of such 'students' in the world today, end up getting a failed grade. However, the future belongs to those who dare.

Boundaries are only there because we set them there. Some are positive and some are negative. Some have become to much of a norm that we do not even challenge them or evaluate their value.
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out"- Decca rejecting the Beatles in 1962
Well we all know how well their prediction turned out. Prediction may be the very restricting factor to innovation. Imagination and invention is what allows it and propels it. Like mentioned in class "The best way to predict the future is to invent it"

In the story of "Who moved my cheese?", haw makes a crucial discovery that he might eventually die if he never left the empty room to search for his moved piece of cheese. "If you dont change, you can become extinct" Forecasting the future is about sniffing the potential cheese in the maze and smelling the cheese you hold presently. Smell the cheese often, you would know when it is getting old.

Imagining myself enjoying new cheese even before i find it, Leads me to it.

Class rating: 8

Emerging & future technologies

I always thought movies over exaggerated the future and the advances in technology it may bring. When we see movies like Star Wars we dismiss it as mere fantasy, but its a frightening thought that these movies could be a directors actual prediction of the future. They've been pretty accurate so far; I remember watching the movie 'minority report' about 10 years ago. In the show the characters played with an interactive computer screen and demonstrated possibilities in biometrics and many other fields of science. I remember being absolutely fascinated with these scenes thinking how creative the director was in coming up with such 'crazy inventions that would never happen'. But fast forward to today, these technologies have indeed become something not so fascinating and surreal anymore. At present, these things are already the norm and were looking ahead to even more exciting possibilities. That was how I felt 10 years back, what would I be looking back on 10 years, 50 years from now?

Today's lesson probably covered one of the more interesting topics we had so far. The topic had no boundaries, because in fact, the future always holds no boundaries. I was particularly interested in certain developments in several fields of technology. One of it was the concept of augmented reality. In Mike Adams report on the 10 most important emerging technologies, augmented reality was listed as one of them. Mike focused on augmented reality used in education. I was particularly interested because I have never been an advocate the typical lecture settings, classrooms, lecture notes. Sadly this is the main form of education we have in the world this day. But will it be for long? I've always felt experience is the best learning method. Experience that involves not only seeing and hearing, but other things like movement, touch and emotions. The idea of education through augmented reality is about projecting learning unto the environment around us. Students will be able to learn about anatomy by walking through the human body and interacting with it. All they might have to do is don a pair of see-through glasses. It is an exciting prospect for providing the next generation better quality education.

Imagine taking it outside the classroom. If you saw something you were not sure off, what if all you needed to do to find out about it was to put on your pair of glasses? You could start reading up and watching videos on the subject instantly. This makes learning immediate and on-the-go. The world becomes your textbook and learning playground. People will keep their eyes and ears open for things around them, instead of staring at their notes with their earphones plugged in. I can imagine technology that can allow us to simply look at something, and a search engine picks up the visual image and scans through massive databases which can allow you to view information in any form or language. When I look at google, when I look at the iPhone, the more I think that this innovation could become a reality sooner than we think.

Another interesting technology topic that always comes up when we talk about the future is the concept of practical robots. Smart robots that do more than what they are programmed to do, but can respond and adapt to changes. The technology has already penetrated our households with appliances like washing machines being 'smart' enough to judge a pile of laundry by itself. Robots may make life very much easier for us humans, eliminating the daily hassles of life, but will it slowly suck the will out of a human beings? What will happen the virtue of hardwork, or the essentials of physical training? Doing things that seem redundant may not be so redundant, it gives you time to reflect, and the hard things are what make the easier things so much more enjoyable.

I may one day come to except a robot doing my household chores, and maybe even my homework for me. As absorb as I feel it is, I may grow to slowly lose my resistance towards it. But the concept of robot companions (even as friends, not to mention lovers) is something I will never succumb to. Robot companions are gaining popularity as they do not have flaws living beings are born with. AIBO, Japan's robotic dog, is already owned by 50,000 people. You may be able to channel a robot to have fake feelings, however, you can never program a soul. Love and friendship are not only based on positive character traits but it is about accepting each others imperfections as well. Imperfections and diversity are part of the beauty of life. Humans should not strive to eliminate the human touch in relationships. If we do so, or rather, if our present attempts succeed in doing so, everything will soon become meaningless. If we one day touch the sun, but we lose our souls, what profit do we make?

Class Rating: 9

Energy and World Change

Today’s lesson opened my eyes to the many ways of retrieving and storing energy that our natural resources produce. It got me thinking; energy is one of the few products that can be generated from “free” and abundant natural resources such as wind and sunlight, yet in the last century producing it has been a major cause of pollution and harm to the environment. Renewable resources generate only 13% of global energy consumption. The reason why we are not tapping on the full potential of renewable resources is because corporations do not see it as profitable economically as using fossil fuels. But it is precisely the fact that no one dares to risk this investment that makes it all the less economically viable. With the integration of efforts and the pulling together of resources by corporations around the globe, surely methods and solutions to churn out this positive form of energy in a more efficient and cost effective way can be realized. However is it true to say, no one, or no few rather, have been willing to step up to be the leaders of change in this area? In class we heard of projects like the Sahara project and some interesting innovations researchers believe in like gathering wind energy with kites. We can see that there are leaders of change present, but like in every big change, people are providing the resistance. If governments do not do something about the flawed pricing system of energy sources, which does not take into account its environmental impact, we will never see the potential of green and sustainable energy.   

The general mindset of the common man is that energy is the problem of the big guns; the governments and the corporations that can invest billions into building mega power plants. The common man is waiting for these big guns to make these major investments, and they shall enjoy the fruits of it. This mindset will never influence healthy energy consumption habits. I strongly feel the key to any form of sustainable change would be to make energy technology in the reach of the common man. These technologies should be “domesticated” and investments and research should be made to create appliances that are easy to use and that can be available to every household. Energy needs to a consideration for every house owner. Solar panels worked in Germany, because the government took initiative to make the people take their own initiative to acquire energy, ownership was transferred to the people and energy became their problem, or opportunity rather.

I believe technological advancements in attaining and processing energy can be made even simpler than that. The simpler it is, the less resistant people will be of the change. We read in reading 4 about future bio-energy technologies. We read about fascinating concepts like catalytic liquidation, which can produce high quality energy with low processing, and of anaerobic fermentation, which can help solve sanitations issues as well. I envision the house of the future to have appliances like the energy processing toilet bowl: after taking a dump, close the lid and instead of flushing, the appliance breaks down your waste converting them into energy carriers. This energy can be used to power the water heater or the bathroom lighting, and hopefully technological breakthroughs can make it efficient enough to power the whole house. Free biomass as a resource can indeed be a viable solution to global warming if it is made this simple for the everyday energy consumer. This is just an example of ways energy technologies can be downscaled to make green initiatives something every citizen can take part in.

I felt we could have received a better understanding on how these energy conversions actually work. For example, we know the movement of wind turbines create energy but how exactly? It would be good to receive some insight on that (: 

Class rating: 6