Technology Forecasting

Today summed up an interesting ten weeks of learning about technology and change. It was an appropriate ending to this journey, as the topic was about forecasting the future. In essence, that was what the course was about; to channel our mindsets to the future, training us to be always forward looking. The purpose of us looking through how we have progressed through the various topics of technology was precisely so we could think of the exciting opportunities ahead. We have transformed from merely wanting to spectate to be  ourselves the change leaders of tomorrow, or rather today.

Prof enlightened us on a concept that was particularly interesting. It was the 'back from the future' framework of planning. It speaks of how we usually think of the limitations and resources we have and work our way around these challenges to achieve what we can best make out of it. The 'back from the future' mindset argues that we should first start by envisioning the end product- what we would like to see, whatever crazy places our imagination can take us, and then work backwards from that, striving to change whatever policies in the present that would prevent us from reaching that goal. Instead of thinking of change after its boundaries, we think of change first, then we manipulate the boundaries. Basically, we gotta think the way a child thinks, or the way we used to think, before we got a better understanding of reality and constraints. A kid would dream of flying around in space making the moon and the stars his playground, and to them, its possible. We as the change leaders of today, should never lose that child-like enthusiasm. All the 'grown-up' knowledge that we have, should not be used to limit us or tie us down, but it should be used to enhance our 'unrealistic' goals with the proper frameworks and helping work around the boundaries and issues that would arise. Dream like a child, think and put into action these dreams like an adult.

However, this concept contradicts another mindset brought up in class. This mindset was that limitations is one of the primary guiding tools to progress. An illustration was brought up about a teacher giving the students a piece of paper to write anything they wanted. The students would not know what to write down without the teacher providing them with some guidelines and rules. Put into this context, the previous concept illustrated would be the students drawing whatever they wanted, folding up the paper, tearing up the paper, and whatever they wished to do with it. The teacher would then give them the guidelines and rules. The key would be how the students were to convince the teacher to change the rules or to work their way around the rules so that they could get a pass grade for their assignment. Unfortunately, many of such 'students' in the world today, end up getting a failed grade. However, the future belongs to those who dare.

Boundaries are only there because we set them there. Some are positive and some are negative. Some have become to much of a norm that we do not even challenge them or evaluate their value.
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out"- Decca rejecting the Beatles in 1962
Well we all know how well their prediction turned out. Prediction may be the very restricting factor to innovation. Imagination and invention is what allows it and propels it. Like mentioned in class "The best way to predict the future is to invent it"

In the story of "Who moved my cheese?", haw makes a crucial discovery that he might eventually die if he never left the empty room to search for his moved piece of cheese. "If you dont change, you can become extinct" Forecasting the future is about sniffing the potential cheese in the maze and smelling the cheese you hold presently. Smell the cheese often, you would know when it is getting old.

Imagining myself enjoying new cheese even before i find it, Leads me to it.

Class rating: 8

Emerging & future technologies

I always thought movies over exaggerated the future and the advances in technology it may bring. When we see movies like Star Wars we dismiss it as mere fantasy, but its a frightening thought that these movies could be a directors actual prediction of the future. They've been pretty accurate so far; I remember watching the movie 'minority report' about 10 years ago. In the show the characters played with an interactive computer screen and demonstrated possibilities in biometrics and many other fields of science. I remember being absolutely fascinated with these scenes thinking how creative the director was in coming up with such 'crazy inventions that would never happen'. But fast forward to today, these technologies have indeed become something not so fascinating and surreal anymore. At present, these things are already the norm and were looking ahead to even more exciting possibilities. That was how I felt 10 years back, what would I be looking back on 10 years, 50 years from now?

Today's lesson probably covered one of the more interesting topics we had so far. The topic had no boundaries, because in fact, the future always holds no boundaries. I was particularly interested in certain developments in several fields of technology. One of it was the concept of augmented reality. In Mike Adams report on the 10 most important emerging technologies, augmented reality was listed as one of them. Mike focused on augmented reality used in education. I was particularly interested because I have never been an advocate the typical lecture settings, classrooms, lecture notes. Sadly this is the main form of education we have in the world this day. But will it be for long? I've always felt experience is the best learning method. Experience that involves not only seeing and hearing, but other things like movement, touch and emotions. The idea of education through augmented reality is about projecting learning unto the environment around us. Students will be able to learn about anatomy by walking through the human body and interacting with it. All they might have to do is don a pair of see-through glasses. It is an exciting prospect for providing the next generation better quality education.

Imagine taking it outside the classroom. If you saw something you were not sure off, what if all you needed to do to find out about it was to put on your pair of glasses? You could start reading up and watching videos on the subject instantly. This makes learning immediate and on-the-go. The world becomes your textbook and learning playground. People will keep their eyes and ears open for things around them, instead of staring at their notes with their earphones plugged in. I can imagine technology that can allow us to simply look at something, and a search engine picks up the visual image and scans through massive databases which can allow you to view information in any form or language. When I look at google, when I look at the iPhone, the more I think that this innovation could become a reality sooner than we think.

Another interesting technology topic that always comes up when we talk about the future is the concept of practical robots. Smart robots that do more than what they are programmed to do, but can respond and adapt to changes. The technology has already penetrated our households with appliances like washing machines being 'smart' enough to judge a pile of laundry by itself. Robots may make life very much easier for us humans, eliminating the daily hassles of life, but will it slowly suck the will out of a human beings? What will happen the virtue of hardwork, or the essentials of physical training? Doing things that seem redundant may not be so redundant, it gives you time to reflect, and the hard things are what make the easier things so much more enjoyable.

I may one day come to except a robot doing my household chores, and maybe even my homework for me. As absorb as I feel it is, I may grow to slowly lose my resistance towards it. But the concept of robot companions (even as friends, not to mention lovers) is something I will never succumb to. Robot companions are gaining popularity as they do not have flaws living beings are born with. AIBO, Japan's robotic dog, is already owned by 50,000 people. You may be able to channel a robot to have fake feelings, however, you can never program a soul. Love and friendship are not only based on positive character traits but it is about accepting each others imperfections as well. Imperfections and diversity are part of the beauty of life. Humans should not strive to eliminate the human touch in relationships. If we do so, or rather, if our present attempts succeed in doing so, everything will soon become meaningless. If we one day touch the sun, but we lose our souls, what profit do we make?

Class Rating: 9

Energy and World Change

Today’s lesson opened my eyes to the many ways of retrieving and storing energy that our natural resources produce. It got me thinking; energy is one of the few products that can be generated from “free” and abundant natural resources such as wind and sunlight, yet in the last century producing it has been a major cause of pollution and harm to the environment. Renewable resources generate only 13% of global energy consumption. The reason why we are not tapping on the full potential of renewable resources is because corporations do not see it as profitable economically as using fossil fuels. But it is precisely the fact that no one dares to risk this investment that makes it all the less economically viable. With the integration of efforts and the pulling together of resources by corporations around the globe, surely methods and solutions to churn out this positive form of energy in a more efficient and cost effective way can be realized. However is it true to say, no one, or no few rather, have been willing to step up to be the leaders of change in this area? In class we heard of projects like the Sahara project and some interesting innovations researchers believe in like gathering wind energy with kites. We can see that there are leaders of change present, but like in every big change, people are providing the resistance. If governments do not do something about the flawed pricing system of energy sources, which does not take into account its environmental impact, we will never see the potential of green and sustainable energy.   

The general mindset of the common man is that energy is the problem of the big guns; the governments and the corporations that can invest billions into building mega power plants. The common man is waiting for these big guns to make these major investments, and they shall enjoy the fruits of it. This mindset will never influence healthy energy consumption habits. I strongly feel the key to any form of sustainable change would be to make energy technology in the reach of the common man. These technologies should be “domesticated” and investments and research should be made to create appliances that are easy to use and that can be available to every household. Energy needs to a consideration for every house owner. Solar panels worked in Germany, because the government took initiative to make the people take their own initiative to acquire energy, ownership was transferred to the people and energy became their problem, or opportunity rather.

I believe technological advancements in attaining and processing energy can be made even simpler than that. The simpler it is, the less resistant people will be of the change. We read in reading 4 about future bio-energy technologies. We read about fascinating concepts like catalytic liquidation, which can produce high quality energy with low processing, and of anaerobic fermentation, which can help solve sanitations issues as well. I envision the house of the future to have appliances like the energy processing toilet bowl: after taking a dump, close the lid and instead of flushing, the appliance breaks down your waste converting them into energy carriers. This energy can be used to power the water heater or the bathroom lighting, and hopefully technological breakthroughs can make it efficient enough to power the whole house. Free biomass as a resource can indeed be a viable solution to global warming if it is made this simple for the everyday energy consumer. This is just an example of ways energy technologies can be downscaled to make green initiatives something every citizen can take part in.

I felt we could have received a better understanding on how these energy conversions actually work. For example, we know the movement of wind turbines create energy but how exactly? It would be good to receive some insight on that (: 

Class rating: 6

Biobusiness Revolution: Agriculture

How do we feed the growing appetite of our planet? 3 main factors that lead to the growing demand for food; a growing population, income levels increasing and urbanization. We cannot stop these from happening, in fact, they signify progress, but how can we make sure no one gets left hungry? Certainly there are numerous that are underfed or undernourished in developing countries; this highlights the importance of technology in agriculture and how it can change the world, save the world rather.

Yields and crop intensity has to be increased. In class, we learnt of many innovative ways of harvesting crops, from almost any environmental condition. We learnt of how the study of genetics can lead to more biodiversity and more production of crops. All these are encompassed under agricultural R&D, a driving force that has led to the rise of  issues; such as genetically modified crops. GM crops; a cause for debate?

To me, we're way passed the issue. GM food are in our everyday diets. It has already penetrated into our systems long before we even knew what it was. What harmful effects it has, well we won't know till we know won't we? So is it good for man to venture into something where long-term results are yet to be known? Well, my view is that we have always been doing that since the beginning of time, and many things we have invented are not sustainable and have harmful effects we discovered long after we invented them. Well, what are the grounds we can allow ourselves to innovate. We can't fight it unless we weigh the benefits of it. GM foods can assist in meeting the predicted demand for food. We can't fight it when billions are going hungry. Its a matter of choosing between the 2 evils. This of course is not the ideal, the ideal is something sustainable, something that does not have long term harmful effects so as we have to create more technologies with harmful long-term effects to solve. Green technologies such as fuel derived from plants are sustainable and should be strongly supported.

With unpredictable climate change holding in itself high risk to the traditional methods of growing crops, and with the degradation of our ecosystems due to, you guessed it, humans with technology in their hands, we have to start being open to such ways of growing the resources we need. We have to find a solution to the problem we've created. Global warming affecting food supply? We can't point the finger at anyone else but ourselves. 

To me, I can't make a stand whether GM foods should be encouraged or not as it has already been chewed, digested and spitted out from our system. If I am not wrong, KFC chickens (notice that the C in KFC does not stand for chickens anymore) are genetically enhanced. How many people visit fast food for a meal everyday? Not only in the chickens but in our fries and our drinks too! So now here we are, and the best thing we can do is enhance what is good about GM foods, focusing on its solution to many of the risks affecting food supply. 

With the rise of GM and other technologies, we must focus also on how developing countries can adapt to this change. Poverty reduction can lead to higher supply in food, vice versa. There has to be a strong social safety net- built on the structures of sanitization, education and assistance. No matter how advanced we are in agricultural R&D, we need the right frame in developing countries to carry out this change. Other wise we have a bottleneck in countries with limited capacity to import food. Trade must be fair and competitive. Benefiting the change makers and the change followers.

One of the presenters brought up the issue about whether labeling GM food should be done. I feel it should be done. Not because it will change our dietary preferences in anyway. But labeling the products will assure consumers that the product is safe and there is nothing the manufacturer is hiding from them. So I don't see the need to holdback the labeling of GM foods if producers believe in the GM product. Or is there?

Class rating: 8

Healthcare and Biomedical Sciences

Technological advancement & new innovations have certainly revolutionized the biomedical industry. Diseases that could not be cured in the past are now easily treated. In the past, if a person were to contract diabetes, he would await his pancreas to slowly destroy his body and take away his life. Now we no longer 'contract' diabetes, we live with diabetes. It is made possible to carry on with our daily lives with such living conditions. My mom is a diabetic and dedicates her life to helping others with the same conditions. There was a time, two months before she got married, she fell into a diabetic comma. Almost to the last brink of hope, a doctor tested her for diabetes, and just in time, they were able to inject insulin into the body. Without proper treatment, diabetics, even if they were able to survive the disease, have many related complications that prevent them from leading a normal healthy life. However, my mom was still able to give birth to a pair of twins against the odds. I'm alive today largely because of the progress of healthcare technology. Need I say more about the impact of this progress?

I classify this positive impact into 3 categories. Treatment, Recreation and Outreach.
Treatment- This refers to the the breakthroughs in medical research, and how this research has saved countless of lives. A person with short sightedness would go blind if we did not innovate. Fast forward a little, now lasik is the trend, removing the whole problem instead of just treating it. We had a presentation in class on how scientists are getting down to the root of the problem of Malaria. We are cable of issuing immunizations without the side effects, that prevent diseases before we have to cure it. There also has been much progress in food & nutrition. Aside having pills for almost everything, we have organic this, organic that, things that enhance health, its not just about maintenance anymore.

Recreation- Health as a hobby, health as a lifestyle. New & better infrastructure built; pools, gyms, stadiums etc. More programs and courses for the taking. From yoga to dance, its becoming a trend to take our health seriously. Look at how many people sign up for the standard chartered marathon each year. Its a growing trend, and if you're concerned about public health, that would be good news.

Outreach- Health Education. The internet is a tool that has been a catalyst for healthcare growth. Not only is it used to store all our medical records as we learnt from one of the presentations, it is used to disseminate information about health. People can treat themselves online, people can find out more about the medicines they have to take. You don't need to travel far and wide these days to get medical advice or to purchase medicine. the availability of healthcare has become widespread.


This is the bright and idealistic side of healthcare. Like I said, there is no denying this bright side of healthcare. However, the weakness of man has once again come into play. Health like any other business in the tertiary sector is a business. It is a service, just like education or banking. However, healthcare has always been treated within some moral boundaries. Healthcare, by virtue is to provide health and care, not to feed on patients money. The large percentage of global GDP spent on healthcare can be both a good and bad thing. The question is how much of this money is being used for good, and how much of it is simply driven by greed and unessacary inflation. We create problems so we can cure them, and so we can make money out of that cure. And as much as we celebrate the progress in healthcare, the people that need the technology the most are not receiving. As an effective business, its not really working out. Healthcare cannot be measured by looking at a screen in wall street, insurance cannot be about how you're gonna get the highest return of investment. If we go down this road further, healthcare could be yet another cause for the increase in worldwide disparity and inequality.

In the movie Patch Adams, dean walcott, representing everything wrong about the healthcare system says: " Our job is to rigorously and ruthlessly train the humanity out of you and make you into something better. We're gonna make doctors out of you. " As ridiculous as it seems,  we should look into ourselves before we start pointing the finger. Are you more concerned of health or wealth? Cure or profit? People or money? Healing or Power?


Class rating: 9



 

ICT

The topic of ICT usually brings a certain amount of stress to me. I used to tell myself "I can't keep up with this, its for the IT experts" or "I don't like computers". But I was then greatly deceived, ICT is not about just computers, its about people. Furthermore, the whole ICT revolution is driven by the fact that it is for the masses, not the just the IT whiz. It is indeed an "Internet for dummies". I started embracing the wonders of the internet when I started using Skype as a tool to contact a love one overseas. It's an amazing yet simple tool. Technology that I could never fathom when I was growing, made possible by a few clicks of the mouse, DIY, instructions included. But what drew me to the technology was not how amazing its functions were, but rather the emotions that the functions allowed me to feel. When I talk to my love ones over Skype, the distance is not felt and suddenly, they're right there in front of you.

It is the human touch in the programs that marvels me. That was what struck me about the video prof Shahi showed in class on the capabilities of gaming technology. The character in the video was able not only to interact with the 'live' user, he was also able to 'feel'. There was an not only IQ, there was an element of EQ displayed. He demonstrated certain emotions such as 'mischief' which was captured so well with the way his facial features and movement. Characters that are able to translate not only words and numbers, but emotions, now thats amazing. It's a scary thought however, to have machines being able to read and analyze things for themselves. We are in the age where artificial intelligence is not a distant idea anymore. Robots and machines helping man with tasks is no longer a thing that will happen in the future, it is happening NOW. How is man going to embrace it? There lies the issue. If we reject its use, are we stopping progress and denying the future generations off something that can improve their lives. I correct myself, its not really for us to decide, its coming whether we like it or not.

I was in the train the other day and decided to see for myself, make a bet with myself rather, how many people on the crowded train had their eyes glued to an iphone screen. I took a quick glance around, and the statistics shocked me, there was a good half of the people using iphones, thats not including those who had their iphones in their bag (ok who would keep it in their bags really?), those who were just listening to music with their earphones (under-utilizing the amazing functions of this technology) or those on their way to buy one. Yes, that many people surf the net on the go, on the go where? Probably to somewhere with better internet connection for net surfing… "Those conformers" I thought to myself and took out my trusty non 3G phone. But it truly is amazing how technology that used to make our jaws open wide in wonder when we were young is now impacting so many people. It has become a norm. It has become so much a norm that it is abnormal NOT to have an iphone. iPhone Apps are as good a business, making a mere 200 million dollars each month. iPhone users have formed a community and soon they might form the majority. I might go get myself one.

Drivers and Leaders of Change

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

- George Bernard Shaw -

I beg to differ with George Bernard Shaw's conclusion in this inductive statement. Since our world is ever-changing, adapting to the world would mean adapting to change. Unreasonable people, as put here, are the leaders of the change. That, I perfectly agree with. However, progress is only made when the reasonable man accepts the idea of the leader, and adopts it. So the very success of the unreasonable man depends greatly on the reasonable man. Like what we saw in one of the videos presented in class, it is the first follower that makes the leader not just another 'lone nut'. And it is the many followers that join in the after that that makes the movement huge, and distinguishes it as progress. Yes, the unreasonable man drives the change, just like a bus driver. But if no one boards the bus, then he is simple taking himself to the destination, with no purpose or profit whatsoever. There are many bus drivers who drive buses with no passengers on board. I believe they are among us, and their number is more than we can imagine. They are the unheard voices. Unfortunately, you have to shout really loud in this world to be heard, precisely because of the many voices drowning each other out. Only few ride buses carrying many on board. And these are our leaders of world change. 

Who/What are the drivers of world change then? Many of them were discussed during the lesson. Technology, the environment, ideologies, globalization and in more depth sustainability and consumer expectations. I believe these are the vehicles of world change. The drivers of the vehicles are us, the human race. 

So what drives the human race? Why are we constantly breaking our own limits, constantly innovating, constantly learning, constantly consuming more and more and more… Surely they are our values, the values we are rooted upon. We talk about self-interest and enlightened self-interest. Using firms as a model, we look at how they either strive to fill their own pockets at the expense of others or to fill their own pockets bringing solutions to the imperfections in our world today. There is one underlying motivator here, and that is pride. Pride drives a man to want more than he should have, drives a man to always fight his way to the top, drives a man to think destiny is in his own hands. It is pride which drives man to conquest. Columbus is such an example, so is hitler. Did they influence change? Most certainly. So is pride the main driver of world change?

However dominant pride may be in influencing world change, there is an opposing force. Again it boils down to values. There are people who live for something more than themselves, for something that lasts beyond their lifetime. These are the Mother Theresas, the Ghandis and a more recent example would be Mohammad Yunus, founder of Grameen bank. Man's intentions for what they do, we will never be able to fully read into. But the world is shaped by this battle of Good vs Evil. Question is: Who is the judge? Puts into perspective the choices we have to make and the decisions that have twisted our fate. 

I know i'm diving a little deep into the question. Its just the most prevailing thought of the day, out of the many others. I did think the presentations today were thought invoking. However, my feedback for this class is that the topic is simply too wide. I believe in the empowerment of students to make about what they want to learn in each topic, however, narrowing it down would make it easier for them to process these things that learnt. Its just the feedback for this particular topic. Hope it helps! Still very engaging though.

Lesson rating: 7